CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Friday said that tropical Pacific and Atlantic ocean temperatures should remain well above average, steadily amplifying heat stress in the Caribbean by increasing temperatures, humidity and heatwave frequency.
In its forecast for the period July to September, CariCOF however noted that the coinciding unusually warm Pacific and Atlantic have opposing effects on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane season activity.
“For now, the record-warm Atlantic appears to dominate, resulting in little concern for drought due to copious wet season rains,” CariCOF said in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter.
It said that the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards increases from moderate to high in August.
“By contrast, the Guianas will potentially be excessively wet in July, with predominantly drier and hotter weather from mid-August.”
According to CariCOF, the rainfall totals from July to September are likely to be the usual or higher across Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (ABC Islands), the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, eastern parts of the Guianas and in the Leeward Islands.
It said by contrast, Belize and Trinidad and Tobago are likely to record the usual rainfall amounts at most.
CariCOF said that as of June this year, severe (or worse) short-term drought has developed in southern Belize, eastern Dominican Republic, southeastern French Guiana, and St. Vincent and that long-term drought has developed in far southern Belize, southeastern most parts of Cuba, western parts of Haiti, and St. Vincent
“Long-term drought might possibly develop or continue in parts of western Belize, Dominica, central and southern French Guiana, Martinique, St. Vincent, and Trinidad and Tobago.”
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