Sunday, Jun 24, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 240525

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    125 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0500 UTC.


    The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
    18W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to
    this wave is noted from 05N to 14N between 15W and 23W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 01N to 19N, moving W
    at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N
    between 44W and 50W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W from Venezuela northward to
    21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    from 10N to 15N between 60W and 64W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 10N-21N. This wave,
    in conjunction with an upper level trough extending across the SE
    Bahamas to the central Caribbean, is producing a large area of
    showers and tstms over eastern Cuba, western Hispaniola and the
    regional waters.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, and extends from the SE
    Gulf across central America into the eastern north Pacific region.
    Scattered to showers and tstms are noted across the Yucatan
    peninsula as well as Guatemala.


    The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 18N17W to
    06.5N26.5W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N26.5W to 03N44W. Outside
    of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
    moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 26W and 41W.



    An upper-level low centered near 21N98W is helping to induce some
    showers and tstms across the SW Gulf as well as portions of
    southern Mexico. The low will drift westward through Sun night,
    and continue to enhance convection across this area.

    A ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern waters.
    Southeast return flow will prevail over the western Gulf the next
    several days. A trough will move west off the western coast of
    the Yucatan Peninsula each night, which will enhance overnight
    winds over much of the southwestern gulf waters.


    Two tropical waves are propagating across the area, one moving
    across the central Caribbean, and another tropical wave is moving
    across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section
    for more details. Expect increasing showers and isolated
    thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical

    Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central and eastern
    Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to
    moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Little change is expected
    through early next week. Areal coverage of fresh to strong trades
    will decrease afterwards as high pressure north of the area
    weakens. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft over the south-
    central Caribbean with the strongest winds. Nocturnal winds will
    pulse to fresh to strong winds the next couple of nights in the
    Gulf of Honduras.


    High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 31N51W extends a ridge
    westward across the forecast area. Fresh to locally strong trade
    winds prevail along the southern periphery of the ridge,
    S of 20N W of 40W. This high pressure will slowly shift westward
    tonight, then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W while
    weakening through Tue night. The weakening of the area of high
    pressure will loosen the pressure gradient, with diminishing
    winds and subsiding seas over this area through early this
    upcoming week. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to
    strong the next several nights off Hispaniola.

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