Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 201725

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    125 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.



    The 06-hour forecast, starting at 20/1200 UTC, is for a cold
    front to be along 31N80W 30N81W. Expect: N of 29N E of the cold
    front to 76W, SW winds 25 to 35 knots. Seas ranging from 9 feet to
    12 feet. The 24-hour forecast consists of: the cold front along
    31N73W TO 23N81W. N of 29N E of front to 70W, SW winds 30 to 35
    knots. Seas ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet.


    The 06-hour forecast, starting at 20/1200 UTC, is for a cold
    front to be along 29N83W 21N97W. Expect: N OF 25N W of the cold
    front to 93W, W to NW winds 20 to 25 knots with frequent gusts to
    gale force within 30 nm of the coast between Suwannee Florida and
    Pascagoula Mississippi. Seas less than 8 feet.

    ...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

    Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
    listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
    forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and
    CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast
    that is valid until 21/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of
    a N or NE near gale or gale in: AGADIR, TARFAYA, CANARIAS, and CAP


    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
    Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
    01N30W, to Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
    within 120 nm either side of the boundaries between 16W and 30W.



    Please read the Special Features section for information about
    the gale warning in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Upper level westerly wind flow is moving across the open waters of
    the Gulf of Mexico.

    A cold front passes from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to
    25N90W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. A prefrontal trough
    is over the SW Gulf from 24N90W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate
    convection is over the NE Gulf and N Florida N of 27N E of front.

    The current cold front will shift SE across the forecast waters,
    moving SE of the area by early Wednesday. High pressure will
    build in the wake of the front.


    Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
    61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
    mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
    Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the webpage,, for
    additional information.

    Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

    A surface ridge passes from the Atlantic Ocean at 23N70W to W
    Cuba near 23N84W. A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia. The
    resultant surface pressure gradient will support fresh to locally
    strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea during
    the next several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the
    NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.


    Please read the Special Features section for information about
    the gale warning in the Atlantic Ocean.

    An upper level trough is in the central Atlantic Ocean supporting
    a surface trough that extends from 32N53W to 28N60W. Scattered
    showers are N of 27N between 46W and 50W.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure centered near
    35N26W to 25N50W.

    The surface trough will move eastward today. A stronger cold
    front has just entered the region off the Florida coast. Winds
    will reach gale force north of 29N through Wednesday night as the
    front moves eastward. The wind speeds and sea heights will
    diminish on Thursday, as the front reaches from Bermuda to the
    Windward Passage, then continues E and weakens slowly.

    For additional information please visit