Saturday, Feb 16, 2019

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 152320

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    620 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2315 UTC.


    The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa
    near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from point
    to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are
    occurring south of 05S between 18W and 32W. A surface trough is N
    of the ITCZ extending from 08N20W to 03N21W with scattered


    A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest
    scatterometer and surface data depict a light to gentle southerly
    wind flow across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate
    southerly winds prevail over the wester half of the Gulf.

    The surface ridge will prevail across the basin through the
    weekend, maintaining moderate southeasterly return flow over the
    western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the northwest Gulf
    of Mexico on Sunday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near
    Tampico, Mexico by early Monday as broad pressure forms off
    Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. The front will stall across the
    northern Gulf waters through Tuesday morning.


    A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a
    base over the western Caribbean. This trough continues to support
    a surface trough that extends from the Cayman Islands to the coast
    of SE Nicaragua. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper- level
    trough supports scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent
    waters. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the

    The surface trough will dissipate this evening. Moderate to fresh
    winds are over the central and eastern Caribbean and will
    continue through Saturday night. However, winds will increase in
    the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to the high pressure
    building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are
    expected over the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras
    Sunday night through Tuesday night, with gale conditions possible
    off Colombia on Sunday night and Monday night.


    A mid to upper-level trough over the west Atlantic supports a
    frontal system across this area, analyzed as a stationary front
    from 31N65W to a 1011 mb low near 29N72W. A surface trough extends
    from the low to 23N78W. Low-level moisture inflow from the
    Caribbean into this system supports scattered showers north of
    20N between 60W-72W. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic
    is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb surface high
    centered near 31N35W.

    Expect for the frontal system to slowly push northeast of the
    area through Saturday. A new cold front will move across the
    waters north of 29N by early Sunday, pushing east of 65W by early
    Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters by Monday
    afternoon, pushing east of 65W by early Tuesday.

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