Atlantic hurricane map

Saturday, Dec 15, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 150556
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1256 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0530 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...Gale off the coast of Morocco...

    A 14/2216 UTC ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off the coast of
    Morocco north of 30N and east of 12W in the region called AGADIR.
    According to the latest forecast from Meteo France, winds to gale
    force will continue to be possible off the coast of Morocco in
    Agadir through the early morning hours, subsiding below gale force
    by late morning today. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
    Forecast that is listed on the website:
    www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
    metarea2 for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough emerges off the west coast of Liberia near
    07N11W and continues to 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point
    to 04N24W. A surface trough is along 25W from 01N-09N. The ITCZ
    continues west of the surface trough from 04N26W to 01S40W.
    Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270 nm of the ITCZ
    between the W coast of Africa and 25W. Scattered moderate
    convection is also noted within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of
    the ITCZ from 26W-40W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A large, deep-layered low pressure system is centered over eastern
    Mississippi and western Alabama. As of 0300 UTC, a cold front
    extends from a surface low near the Alabama/Georgia border to the
    Florida Big Bend near 29N83W and across the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico to the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W, then continues through
    Belize to central Guatemala. A squall line is analyzed at 0300
    UTC from west-central Florida near 27N82W to 25N83W. Radar shows
    that a line of strong thunderstorms at 0500 UTC extends from
    approximately Daytona Beach to Orlando to Ft. Myers Florida to
    26N83W, then continues SSW as a line of weaker showers and
    thunderstorms from 26N83W to 24N84W. To the west of this line,
    more moderate stratiform precipitation is noted over the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 87W. A surface trough is located
    from 30N87W to 22N91W. In between the cold front and surface
    trough, overcast skies with scattered showers are noted. West of
    the surface trough, no precipitation is noted as water vapor
    imagery shows a large dry slot extending over the western Gulf
    associated with the low over the SE United States. Although gale
    force winds have already ended in the Gulf of Mexico, seas will
    remain elevated through early this morning before gradually
    subsiding.

    The front will reach from the Port of Tampa to the Yucatan
    Channel early today, and continue east passing through the Bahama
    Channel tonight. Strong to near gale force southerly flow and
    scattered thunderstorms will continue to precede the front across
    the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Strong to near
    gale force northwesterly flow will continue west of the front
    through sunrise this morning. Moderate west flow is expected this
    evening as the seas will subside. Moderate return flow will set
    up across the northwest waters on Tue with broad low pressure
    developing over the southwest Gulf.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Yucatan Channel near
    22N86W through central Belize and ending in central Guatemala near
    15N90W. Isolated showers are noted over the Yucatan Peninsula and
    in the NW Caribbean between Jamaica and the Isle of Youth. Water
    vapor imagery shows relatively dry air in the eastern and central
    Caribbean. A scatterometer pass from 15/0126Z shows fresh to
    strong winds in the central Caribbean, strongest off the coast of
    Colombia, where localized near-gales are likely occurring.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
    east of 80W through early Sun, with nocturnal pulses to near gale
    force off the northwest coast of Colombia. The cold front that is
    currently over the Yucatan Channel will stall and then gradually
    dissipate over the NW Caribbean tonight through Mon. Strong north
    winds are forecast west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras
    early this morning through late Sun. Large north swell will reach
    the Leewards later today, and spread south through the Atlantic
    passages of the northeast Caribbean during the remainder of the
    weekend, then will subside from the north early next week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Scattered moderate convection continues over the west Atlantic,
    mostly west and north of a line from Cape Canaveral Florida to
    30N80W to 32N77W. This activity is from the same weather system
    that is producing scattered thunderstorms from central Florida
    through the Carolinas. More convection is occurring just north of
    the forecast area between 70W and the Carolinas, where gale force
    winds are also occurring.

    To the east, a cold front passes through 32N33W to 27N42W, then
    transitions to a stationary front at that point to 25N58W, then
    transitions to a warm front from that point to 28N71W. Isolated
    showers are seen along the cold front and stationary front. A 1026
    mb high is near 29N27W.

    Strong to near gale force southeast to south return flow will
    continue across much of the waters outside of the Bahamas ahead of
    a cold front that will reach from 31N77W to the Bahama Channel
    this evening, then from 31N72W to central Cuba on Sun, and from
    Bermuda to east Cuba on Mon. The front will stall across the
    tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles by the middle of
    next week, with the remnants lifting back north late next week.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen