Atlantic hurricane map

Saturday, Sep 22, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  1. 113
    ABNT20 KNHC 221111
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward
    Islands.

    Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
    organized near the center of a low pressure system located about
    500 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, and a tropical
    depression appears to be forming. If these trends continue,
    advisories will be initiated on this system later today while the
    low moves westward at about 20 mph.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of
    Bermuda is producing only minimal shower activity. Strong upper-
    level winds are expected to diminish by Sunday or Monday, which
    could allow for some slow development of this system while it moves
    westward and then northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
    Ocean. By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to
    strengthen again, which would limit additional development as the
    system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    Satellite imagery indicates that a non-tropical low pressure system
    is forming along a frontal boundary about 900 miles west-southwest
    of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for the
    low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
    subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week
    while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more
    information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
    National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
    header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
    WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
    found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
    on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan