Atlantic hurricane map

Saturday, Nov 17, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 162359

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    659 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.


    The monsoon trough axis extends from well over the interior of
    Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N22W. The
    ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W. Scattered moderate
    convection is from 05N south between 09W-15W. Elsewhere, a
    band of scattered showers north of the ITCZ extends from 19N
    south between the coast of Africa near Mauritania to 39W.


    In the upper levels, a strong jetstream branch originating from
    the eastern Pacific extends northeastward across the SE Gulf, to
    the Yucatan Peninsula and to across south Florida. At the surface,
    a 1025 mb high pressure dominates the weather regime in the wake
    of the recent cold front passage. Cold air advection with the
    northerly flow around the high center located over the northern
    Gulf near 27N90W is resulting in broken to overcast stratocumulus
    clouds across just about the entire sections of the eastern and
    middle Gulf. Broken to overcast low clouds associated with a
    surface trough are confined to the southwestern Gulf. Scattered
    showers are possible with these clouds. Clear skies are present
    generally to the north of 27N, and from 23N to 26N west of 92W.
    A surface trough is present from 28N95W to 27N97W along the
    Gulf coast of Texas. No significant precipitation is noted at
    this time with the trough.

    Isolated showers are over some parts of the Straits of Florida.
    A rather tight pressure gradient between the high pressure over
    the area and the recently departed cold front, now over the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea, is bringing mainly fresh northerly
    winds over the far southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida.
    Gentle to moderate winds in anticyclonic fashion around the 1025
    mb high are elsewhere across the Gulf. Little change is expected
    in the present synoptic pattern through Sat, then the high
    pressure will begin to shift eastward on Sun in response to the
    next cold front that will be moving across Texas. This front is
    forecast to reach the Texas coast Sun night.


    The tail end of a cold front extends from central Cuba at 20N78W
    to near the Cayman Islands, where it becomes stationary to the
    coast of northeastern Honduras as of 21Z. Satellite imagery shows
    mainly broken low clouds, with possible scattered showers along
    and to the northeast of the front. Along the stationary front near
    20N79W to 15N84W scattered moderate convection is noted 180 nm
    behind the front which are being supported by a upper- level
    disturbance riding along a strong jet stream branch that extends
    northeastward from the eastern Pacific to across the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. The strong northerly winds
    are forecast to diminish to fresh winds on Sat as the pressure
    gradient over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
    Caribbean slackens.

    A surface trough, the remnants of a former tropical wave,
    extends from northwest Colombia to just southwest of Jamaica.
    Isolated showers are seen over Jamaica. Patches of low-level
    moisture containing isolated showers are moving westward over the
    remainder of the Caribbean to the east of the cold front.

    The stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat night.
    High pressure over the central Atlantic will build southward
    through Sun bringing an increase to the trades across the eastern
    and central Caribbean that is expected to last into early next


    A cold front, that is well defined in satellite imagery, is over
    the western Atlantic along a position from 29N70W to 21N77W in
    south central Cuba as of 21Z. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are along and within 100 nm east of the front north
    of 30N. The front is forecast to become stationary from near
    32N66W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Sat morning,
    and slowly weaken through Mon.

    A surface trough extends from near 25N73W to low pressure of 1012
    mb near 24N74W and to just north of eastern Cuba. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm northeast and east of
    the low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere along
    and near the trough.

    A cold front stalls from south-central Cuba to 18N81W to NE
    Honduras. The front will gradually weaken through Sat morning when
    it is forecast to transition to a surface trough that will move
    to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning. Fresh to strong
    northerly winds will persist behind the front through tonight.
    Strong and broad high pressure building north of the area behind
    the front will support fresh to strong winds along the coast of
    Colombia and along the coast of Venezuela beginning tonight and
    continuing through Wed.

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