Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 282348
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    748 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A middle to upper level shortwave trough is observed on water
    vapor imagery supporting a 1004 mb low centered near 28N64W. Near-gale
    to gale-force winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of
    the low within 150 nm of the center. The low is forecast to move
    northeast during the next 48 hours with near-gale to gale-force
    winds rotating around its center. By Thursday evening...the low
    will have moved north of the discussion area. Please see the
    latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

    ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

    The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
    00N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 00N20W to
    00N35W. A surface trough extend west of the ITCZ from 09N40W to
    00N41W. Isolated moderate convection prevails within 50 nm on
    either side of the Monsoon Trough mainly east of 16W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the basin with water
    vapor imagery indicating relatively dry and stable air. A surface
    ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1018 mb near 29N82W.
    A broad low pressure area anchored over northern Mexico and
    southern Texas extends across the west Gulf waters mainly west of
    93W. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return
    flow east of 90W and moderate to fresh southeast flow west of
    90W. Winds in the western basin will increase tonight to fresh to
    strong ahead of the next cold front to emerge the coast of Texas
    Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
    vicinity of the front as it moves southeast across the Gulf
    through Saturday.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
    with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water vapor
    imagery. Over the eastern portion of the basin, abundant moisture
    is being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture
    supports shallow convection across the northeast Caribbean
    affecting Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. With the Special
    Features' low pressure area located north of Puerto Rico, the
    pressure gradient remains fairly weak and results in gentle to
    moderate trades across the whole basin. These conditions are
    expected to persist through the next 24-48 hours with the
    exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of
    Honduras. Little change is expected through the remainder of the
    week.

    ...HISPANIOLA...

    Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
    aloft. Low-level moisture convergence combined with orographic
    lifting is enhancing a few showers over the island. This activity
    will dissipate overnight. As the Special Features' low pressure
    continues moving northeast away from the island during the next
    24 hours, drier weather will prevail.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    The primary focus for the west Atlantic is the Special Features
    low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 28N64W. A warm
    front extends northeast from the low to 31N57W to 29N46W. A
    weakening stationary front connects to the warm front from 29N46W
    to 31N28W. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the
    warm front mainly north of 30N between 48W-62W. The west Atlantic
    is under the influence of a surface ridge associated with a 1019
    mb high centered near 32N75W. The remainder of the central and
    eastern Atlantic is also under the influence of a surface ridge
    anchored by a 1024 mb high near 35N50W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA