Friday, Jan 18, 2019

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 181055

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    555 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1145 UTC.



    Surface ridging north of the Caribbean will enhance E to NE
    tradewinds to minimal gale force each night near the coast of
    Colombia through Monday. Please read the High Seas Forecast
    product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


    A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday
    morning. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to
    Veracruz Mexico Saturday night and clear the basin past South
    Florida and the Yucatan Channel on Sunday morning. Winds to gale
    force are forecast behind the front Saturday afternoon through
    Sunday morning in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Please read the
    High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
    HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


    The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
    and extends to 00N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the
    coast of Brazil near 04N37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection within 80 to 100 nm northwest of the monsoon trough
    between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate convection are present
    in the proximity of the ITCZ and extend 220 nm north and 180 nm
    south of the ITCZ.


    A surface ridge covers the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are
    over the SW Gulf extending from the Yucatan Peninsula across the
    Bay of Campeche into Veracruz, Mexico. Elsewhere, no organized
    deep convection present. Scatterometer data indicates gentle to
    moderate winds across the Gulf. High pressure will dominate the
    basin through today.

    High pressure ridging W over the Gulf from the Atlc will shift E
    today. Fresh to strong S return flow will develop in the western
    Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sat. A strong cold front is expected to
    reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Sat morning. It is likely that a line
    of rainshowers and thunderstorms may precede the front. Winds to
    gale force are expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico
    near Tampico on Saturday afternoon and near Veracruz Saturday
    night. Winds should top out around 40 kt near Veracruz. The front
    should exit the Gulf by Sun evening and allow strong winds to
    taper off over the basin by sunrise on Mon.


    A surface trough extends over the Central Bahamas. Scattered
    showers are observed near Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola.
    GOES-16 satellite images show relatively higher amounts of
    moisture over the northern Caribbean with dry air over the
    southern Caribbean. 10 to 20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean
    with no significant convection present.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over S central Caribbean
    through Tue night. Gale force winds currently occurring along the
    immediate coast of Colombia will return tonight and Sat night,
    then again Mon night and Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh
    trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross
    the NW Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday, then stall and weaken.
    The front will reach from the Yucatan Channel to the central
    coast of Honduras on Sunday morning, and then extend from SE Cuba
    to the eastern coast of Honduras on Sunday night. Fresh to strong
    N winds are expected behind the front.


    A weak surface trough is near 29N78W to 25N79W. Scattered shower
    activity is between the eastern Bahamas and Southeast coast of
    Florida. A surface trough extends from 27N73W to the central
    Bahamas near 23N74W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the
    trough. A cold front extends from across our border at 31N48W to
    27N57W. A stationary front extends from that point to a weak 1018
    mb low pressure centered at 26N59W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate
    convection extends 180 nm east of the front north of 22N, in an
    area where upper-level diffluence is prevalent. Surface trough
    ahead of the front extends from 30N47W to 24N54W. Scattered
    moderate convection is within the axis of the trough and the
    proximity of the cold front to the east. Surface high pressure
    ridging extends over most of the eastern half of the basin north
    of 18N.

    Weak high pressure will drift E from the SE United States toward
    Bermuda through Sat afternoon. Winds will veer to the S, and then
    strengthen Sat afternoon through Sun morning E of Florida. A
    strong cold front will push off the Florida peninsula Sun morning
    and extend from 31N79W to 28N80W, then reach from 31N74W to 27N75W
    to eastern Cuba Sun night and finally stretch from 27N65W to near
    the Windward Passage on Monday. Minimal gale force winds will be
    possible on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W Sun
    through Mon. Seas could build to as high as 20 ft in NW swell
    behind the front near 31N65W on Tue.

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