Monday, Jun 25, 2018

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 251150

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    728 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1130 UTC.


    A tropical wave is analyzed along 29.5W from 02N to 18N and has
    been moving W at 12 kt over the past 24 hours. Isolated moderate
    convection associated to this wave is noted from 03N to 10N
    between 23W and 30W.

    The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W from 04N to 19N, moving
    W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
    noted from 04N to 09N within 150 nm either side of the wave axis.

    A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean along 62W
    from 05N to 20N and has been moving west at 18 kt but should
    begin to slow it's forward progression. Isolated showers are
    observed within 120 nm of the wave.

    A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and
    is currently along 73W and extends north across the Mona
    Passage. Scattered showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave
    across northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia.

    Another tropical wave is along 86W and will pass through the
    Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras today. Only isolated
    showers accompany the wave. This wave will likely lose identity
    on Tue as it merges into a broad low pressure over the East
    Pacific along 95W.


    The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western at
    12.5N17W to 06N23W where an ITCZ forms and continues southwest
    03N50W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical
    wave, isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection is
    observed west of 18W within 240 nm either side of the monsoon
    trough and ITCZ.



    An upper-level cyclone is centered over Mexico near 22N99W.
    Upper diffluence e of this cyclone is supporting isolated
    showers and tstms over the northwest and far southwest waters.
    The upper cyclone is forecast to continue westward through Tue
    while continuing to enhance convection across the western gulf.
    An east to west surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend
    to northeast Texas. Isolated showers and tstms are observed east
    of 88W and south of the ridge axis.


    See tropical wave section for details on three waves
    progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
    winds are noted across the Caribbean south of 18N with moderate
    to locally fresh easterly flow north of 18N. The areal coverage
    of the fresh to strong trades will decrease over the next few
    days, with strong winds continuing mainly over the south-central
    Caribbean by midweek. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to
    strong through Tue night in the Gulf of Honduras.


    A quasi-stationary 1026 mb surface high is centered near 31N54W
    with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida, and a
    ridge extending southeast to near 23N33W. Moderate to fresh
    trades are noted across the tropics west of 45W. The pressure
    gradient is forecast to relax somewhat on Tue with the trades
    lightly diminishing by midweek. Nocturnal winds will continue
    to pulse to fresh to strong the next several nights off

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