Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 250005
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    805 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
    near 07N11W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to 01N25W
    01N38W, and to the Equator along 50W near the coast of Brazil.
    Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers,
    in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, FL to 24N78W where it
    becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. A few tstms are
    along the frontal boundary between 85W and 89W, and also near
    23N88W. Gentle to moderate northerly flow follows the front with
    seas of 2-4 ft. The cold front will move across south Florida and
    the SE Gulf this evening, also affecting the Yucatan peninsula and
    the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move across
    western Cuba and southeast of the area on Wed. The cold front
    could support some shower and tstm activity over western Cuba and
    the Yucatan penindula on Wed. Weak high pres will once again
    build across the gulf region behind the front producing a light to
    gentle anticlyclonic flow, and seas generally of 3 ft or less.

    The current cold front will reach the SE Gulf on Wednesday, where
    it will stall. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of
    Mexico on Wednesday night. This front will shift across the Gulf
    waters, moving SE of the area on Sunday.




    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An upper level trough extends from 23N63W in the Atlantic Ocean,
    across Puerto Rico, into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
    Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
    imagery, from 22N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 60W and
    70W, and from 11N to 15N from 70W westward in the Caribbean Sea.
    Afternoon rainshowers are in the Dominican Republic, and in the
    Atlantic Ocean coastal areas and NW parts of Cuba.

    Numerous strong rainshowers are in northern sections of Colombia
    and NW parts of Venezuela, and in eastern Panama near the border
    with Colombia. Cyclonic wind flow. with an upper level inverted
    trough, spans the area from Venezuela to Colombia to Panama.

    The wind speeds will pulse to fresh-to-strong in the central
    Caribbean Sea during the overnight hours. Gentle to moderate winds
    will prevail elsewhere.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 32N48W to 29N52W. The front becomes
    stationary at 29N52W, and it continues to 26N62W 28N70W, and to
    32N76W. The frontal boundary eventually connects itself to a 1008
    mb low pressure center that is in NW South Carolina. A cold front
    extends from the South Carolina low pressure center, through
    32N78W, continuing just to the NW of Lake Okeechobee in South
    Florida, to 24N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
    moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N northward
    from 68W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N
    northward between 45W and 56W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
    from 24N northward from 45W westward.

    The current cold front, from South Carolina to Florida, will
    reach from 31N70W to the straits of Florida on Thursday, where it
    will stall and dissipate. A second cold front will move into the
    NW waters on Friday night. This front will reach from near 31N72W
    to the straits of Florida on Saturday night, and from 31N66W to W
    Cuba on Sunday night.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT